Introduction

Overview

The FloodCast Pilot Service is part of the Destination Earth Initiative, developed under the contract “High-Resolution Early Precipitation-to-Flood Signals” (DE_374b, Lot 1).

The service produces daily flood forecasting products for the Italian territory by running the FloodPROOFS hydrological model forced with Extremes-DT data (IFS at 4.4 km resolution). When an AI-driven triggering algorithm detects critical precipitation thresholds, an on-demand high-resolution ICON forecast (1.1 km) is launched and a second, higher-resolution hydrological run is executed.

The resulting products are accessible through the FloodCast web dashboard at:

Project Partners

  • CINECA — operates the entire system: workflow implementation on the Leonardo EuroHPC supercomputer, computational resources, UI development, and data publication.

  • CIMA Foundation — developed the FloodPROOFS hydrological model and configured it to accept Extremes-DT input data.

  • DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst) — provided the SynCast-based model for the AI-driven triggering algorithm.

  • AIM (Agenzia ItaliaMeteo) — coordinated the project, providing configuration for running the ICON atmospheric model and validation tools.

Target Users

The service is primarily designed for:

  • Operators of the Italian National Civil Protection System (national and regional levels)

  • Personnel of the National Department of Civil Protection

  • Regional Functional Centres

  • Researchers in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting

  • Environmental monitoring agencies

The service supports:

  • Early identification of potentially critical hydrometeorological events

  • Assessment of event severity through return-period indicators

  • Integration with existing early warning procedures and decision-support systems

Service Components

The Pilot Service comprises:

  • FloodPROOFS hydrological model — runs daily across 17 Italian catchment domains, producing streamflow forecasts and return-period maps.

  • AI-based flood indicator — evaluates precipitation accumulations against historical thresholds to conditionally trigger the high-resolution ICON run.

  • ICON atmospheric model at 1.1 km — provides enhanced meteorological forcing when critical conditions are detected.

  • FloodCast web dashboard — makes products available for interactive visualisation, inspection, and download.

The backend pipeline runs on the Leonardo EuroHPC supercomputer at CINECA, orchestrated by ecFlow suites that handle data retrieval, model execution, post-processing, and result publication.